Sup putofaces, your boys have taken a break from being awesome and shit to hit you with that picks post. Now most of us would ASSUME that 150 would be a big deal, but it isnt. Rather then get on my soapbox and get all “OVERSATURATION OF THE SPORT” I’ll just kick you some of my supreme knowledge, with the great Cruelty, as always. I’m italics, he aint. LETS GO!!
Eiji Mitsuoka over Nik Lentz – Round 3 JD
Lentz had a few fights where he just tried to grapplefuck guys, and got him JDs. Then he ran into a superior wrestler in Bocek, and tried to brawl with Dunham who picked him apart. If he tries to stand with Mitsuoka he’s gonna get roughed up again. Mitsuoka is not the best wrestler, so this will depend on Lentz’s strategy and ability to close without getting hit. Lentz trains with a good team and should be desperate for a win, so I think he’ll take the safe route and win with takedowns and position.
Nick Lentz over Eiji Mitsuoka -UD
The Carny is back! I expected more excitement from Cruelty. Carny has to be a top 5 nickname tho. Lentz is gonna give Eiji fits on the mat, i’ll go back to my “Dana hates the Japs” conspiracy theories on twitter.
Dustin Pague over Chico Camus – Round 3 JD
Wow this Dustin guy is from Northern Virginia (I lived there for years) and has fought in 3 UFC events and I had no recollection of him. Having now watched a little bit of his fights, I still don’t remember him. Meanwhile Camus is making his debut, and doesn’t look impressive enough to really deserve it. He trains at Roufussport, which is a good camp, but he seems to content to counterfight and hope the judges make the right call. Dustin at least likes to come forward, so I think we’ll have a slow kickboxing match and JD for Pague.
Dustin Pague over Chico Camus – UD
Camus fought on a card named “Little Giants”, which, cmon, is fucking insulting tho. Its been a minute since I’ve used “1st time jitters” factor, this seems like a perfect place to use it.
Ken Stone over Erik Perez – Round 3 JD
So far this undercard is like an advanced MMA trivia contest. More fucking nobodies fighting… this is growing pains of building new weight classes I guess. Both nobodies will look to throw hands, and Stone has more polish. That works as a nice headline if he wins, too. Stone also has better grappling so he has every reason to win, and we have no reason to care.
Erik Perez over Ken Stone – TKO Rd 2
This quietly is an interesting fight with two guys from solid camps. Stone fights because of all the “MOAR LIKE KEITH STONE AM I RITE?” comments he’s heard the past few years. Crazy shit fuels different fighters, right? Perez catches him later in the fight, and gets his hand raised.
Thiago Tavares over Dennis Hallman – Round 3 JD
Lately Tavares has been fighting strikers and we’ve seen him win with grappling. We know he’s a pretty good striker and good bjj player, but I still don’t love his wrestling. I don’t think he’ll be able to take Hallman down, but I don’t really think he should. Hallman never really developed into much of a kickboxer and Tavares should feel free to open it up a bit and get aggressive on his feet. He isn’t likely to knockout a veteran like Hallman but he should be able to outpoint him easily between stuffed takedown attempts.
Dennis Hallman over Thiago Tavares – UD
Why dont I see this fight in the Weigh in results? Oh well. I had such high hopes for Tavares about 3 years ago, now, not so much. Solid grapplers give him fits, Hallman is a solid grappler, case closed. I’m still shocked that Hallman still has a job after the whole “fighting in a g string and showing the world your gooch” thing.
Jared Hamman over Michael Kuiper – Round 3 JD
I’m worried that I haven’t picked a single finish to this point. The main card looks good but I don’t know how entertaining some of these opening fights will be. Anyway, here are some more kickboxers that will likely go to decision. Hamman is a bit quicker and should be able to land first in exchanges. That will impress the judges who may have carpal tunnel by this point in the night after marking so many scorecards.
Michael Kuiper over Jared Hamman – TKO Rd 1
I still trip out when I see Hamman at 185. He’s the perfect example of “It doesnt matter what weight class you move to, youre still chinny as fuck.” Kuiper has been tearing shit up in the Netherlands, fighting polar bears and shit, I see him catching Hamman early.
Tommy Hayden over Dennis Bermudez – Round 3 JD
Remember that Always Sunny episode where the gang decides to be the A-Team and Charlie is Murdock? Well Hayden is nicknamed “Wild Card” but he’s not nearly as cool as Charlie, or the real Murdock for that matter. He has a bit of a wrestling base but I wasn’t blown away. Bermudez is not a world-beater either but he’ll be the better striker and is a decent wrestler himself. Bermudez is the type of fighter that will make dumb choices and lose fights, but I’m hoping he keeps his shit together in this fight where he should have an edge in every aspect.
Dennis Bermudez over Tommy Hayden – Sub Rd 2
I’m not sleeping on Bermudez. I think he’s someone to keep an eye on at 145. He was giving Brandao fucking fits before he got caught in some split second shit. Hayden trains with a solid camp, but I smell a smothering gapplefuck here, and a RNC later in the fight.
Justin Lawrence over Max Holloway – Round 1 KO
This should be a fun one. Both guys like to throw some hands and have KOs. Max moves a lot but it isn’t very technical, and I think Lawrence will catch him bending or sliding the wrong way. When Max hits the canvas the judges will tear up and throw their cards in the air like the real estate contract at the end of Goonies (SPOILER ALERT) and the crowd will rush the cage.
Justin Lawrence over Max Holloway – TKO Rd 1
Interesting match up between two young cats. Lawrence has potential highlight KO power, Holloway likes to stand as well, I dont think this ends well for him. Lawrence is another kid we may wanna keep our eyes on.
Yushin Okami over Buddy Roberts – Round 2 TKO
Buddy is 1) a grown-up in present day who goes by Buddy, and 2) coming in short notice in his second UFC fight against a former #1 contender. For these reasons, and more, he will fucking LOSE. Okami looked pretty sharp with his boxing against Boetsch, and considering boxing was Buddy’s only way to win, that’s a bad sign. Okami will knock Roberts around for a round on the feet before taking it to the ground in the second and finishing with gnp.
Yushin Okami over Buddy Roberts – JD
Yeah, Buddy got a bad deal outta this one. Although he’s a solid fighter coming from a solid camp, this is a terrible match up for him style wise. Okami is gonna take it easy, grapplefuck Buddy for 3 rounds, avoid the big bombs, and make us want these 20-25 minutes of our life back. BUT WE CANT HAVE THEM BACK.
Jake Shields over Ed Herman – Round 3 JD
I’ve been wondering what happened to Jake Shields. Glad to have him back to add some more good grapplers to the division. I haven’t been wondering where Ed Herman has been. He’s like ginger tortoise… I imagine he’s been walking slowly since his last fight to this new venue. That’s pretty brutal because he probably hasn’t had time to train and he’s facing a guy who is probably the best wrestler he’s been in the cage with. Shields will take him down over and over, and pepper him with strikes that do absolutely no damage. Ed will have some chances to score with dirty boxing, but he’ll end up on the bottom too often for the judges to favor him. Plus nobody likes fucking redheaded guys so how can they pick him? After what they went through at the front part of this card, the judges will be in no mood to set aside their prejudices.
Jake Shields over Ed Herman – Sub Rd 1
Its sorta the same issue Hamman has, if you got knocked out at 170, is moving up to 185 really the best idea? Herman is a really safe fight, he shouldnt give Shields much issues on the mat, and doesnt have KO power, so Shields should get this to the mat early and take either his neck or arm. Seriously tho, this is UFC 150, shouldnt they of made a bigger deal of this card, and gave us, you know, better fights?
Donald Cerrone over Melvin Guillard – Round 3 JD
These two fights make it worth a trip to the local sports bar to check this card out. Cowboy and Guillard are both young, explosive fighters who have all the upside in the world. The story will be Greg Jackson’s camp. Guillard, who is basically a crazy person, quits camps as soon as he loses a fight. He was with Jackson’s for awhile, and Cerrone has trained with Jackson for his whole career. This gives Cerrone a huge advantage in terms of game planning, and makes it less likely this fight will have a finish. This will be a tense, close one with Cerrone earning the JD by using his kicks and movement better. Cerrone might end up on the bottom at times but he’s very active and should almost nullify the takedowns in terms of scoring. Considering his popularity, I have to believe a win means Cowboy will be looking at a number 1 contender fight next.
Donald Cerrone over Melvin Guillard – TKO Rd 1
I think this is a terrible match up for Guillard. He’s gonna get peppered with jabs and straight rights and they are going to throw his footwork off. If Melvin cant load up and explode with his strikes he’s pretty useless, and if this hits the mat I think Cerrone taps him pretty easily. I dont think Cerrone is a top 5 cat even with this win, Guillard is highly overrated IMO. I dont think he can he can get past Pettis, Diaz, Bendo, or Edgar either.
Frankie Edgar over Benson Henderson – Round 5 JD
Bendo surprised and impressed me in the first contest. He was able to win kickboxing exchanges with Edgar, and nullified Edgar’s takedowns by staying busy and aggressive from the bottom. I think Edgar was a little surprised to find himself defending submissions as often as he was, and I think that will be a bigger part of his camp this time. I expect Edgar to bring a more conservative approach to the grappling in this fight because I think he can score without taking so much risk. Even if the kickboxing is even, I think Edgar can get takedowns and focus more on position to win rounds. If you’re worried that he’ll make this a boring fight following this game plan, don’t overestimate his ability to blanket Bendo. This will be a wild fight again no matter what game plans the fighters bring because it is so evenly matched. With Edgar wearing the belt again, Gray Maynard is in limbo and Edgar can face some exciting young fighter from down the list – maybe Cowboy Cerrone?
Benson Henderson over Frankie Edgar – UD
Love this fight. I said it on the podcast, I think the belt bounces between the 4 guys I listed above for the next 2-3 years, and its going to be fun as fuck to watch. Henderson is just too busy, and will give Edgar fits regardless where the fight goes. Edgar cant use his best attribute here, which is fast hands and crazy footwork, because Bendo can match that intensity. I think Edgar grabs a round or two, but Bendo wins 3 rounds in convincing fashion, and defends that belt. Bendo-Pettis II or Bendo-Diaz is going to be fucking INSANE.