Sup hoes, yall enjoying LeBron’s first ring yet? We’re back, and reviewing TWO main cards, because we love you. If you want to hear us talk about these fights via podcast, check my twitter for a link to the show Saturday afternoon. If you want to figure out whos typing below, watch the fonts – I’m italics remember? Without further waiting…
UFC ON FX
Cub Swanson over Ross Pearson – Round 3 JD
Swanson likes to bang but he’s also a pretty slick grappler. His most recent loss was to an inferior opponent in Ricardo Lamas. He made a mistake that got him caught, but before that transition and sub he was looking very good. Otherwise he has been very impressive. He’s not a smart fighter and, if it wasn’t for his connection to Greg Jack, I would predict he’d indulge Pearson in a boxing match that he would lose. Instead I think MMA Yoda will tell him to take this fight to the ground where he has a clear advantage. Pearson is coming along with his groundgame but he still needs to win by landing volume. Similar to Sam Stout who we’ll see later in the card, he tends to let fighters hang around… even when he’s dominating. If he had finishing power I’d consider picking him to land on Swanson, who can get wild at times, and finish… but he doesn’t so I’m predicting a loss where he spends too much time on his back.
Ross Pearson over Cub Swanson – TKO Rd 1
Damn Hioki didnt get onto the main card? Dana hates those Japs, I’m telling you. The records here are pretty identical, but I got love for Pearson, because of his love for the great Evander Holyfield. Both guys got pop in the gloves but I think Pearson will be the bigger guy when the put the weight back on, so I’m leaning Pearson here, landing the big Holyfield hooks early. Evander was the shit tho.
T.J. Waldburger over Brian Ebersole – Round 3 JD
Ebersole straight up stole a fight from Claude Patrick, then went on to call the guillotine a martial arts myth. Ask 10 million bjj whitebelts who go for it every second of every class: it’s real and it’s occasionally effective. Attacks on bjj hobbyists aside, I actually think the technique had a bit of a renaissance a year or two ago when people started trying different grips. Anyway, he’s a pretty average fighter who relies on his above-average wrestling to win decisions. Waldburger is a good grappler in his own right, and I think this fight will look a bit like that Ebersole-Patrick fight I just cited. Waldburger will be attacking and Ebersole defending from top position. I’m betting the judges get it right this time, and don’t reward Ebersole for lay n’ pray.
Brian Ebersole over TJ Waldburger – UD
Ebersole got jokes yall! I have a hard time picking Waldburger, who lost to Funch, who I believe is terrible. Ebersole is use his crafty vet experience to steal rounds and snake a victory. Hate to go there again, but they’re showing this and not Hioki? Ok?
Sam Stout over Spencer Fisher – Round 3 JD
Both guys are coming off losses to Thiago Tavares, which feels weird somehow. Tavares is going to be so fucking proud of himself until Stout and Fisher team up to attack him in the crowd. Or instead they might have an awesome kickboxing match. The other two fights between these guys were really fun and this one should be fun again, but I’m giving Stout a clear advantage. He’s been slowly building his power, while Fisher has been slowing down. Fisher looks like a guy who parties too hard to have a long MMA career. He’s so worn and sideburn-y his face just screams Marlboro Reds. Still, Fisher is tough and won’t be easy to finish so I give this to Stout on points.
Sam Stout over Spencer Fisher – UD
Hate to go there, but has any Team Tompkins fighter won since dude passed? Shit I’m tempted to pick against him. HOWEVA, his hands are heavy, he showed that in knocking out the unknockoutable (see what I did there?) Yves Edwards, and Fisher is done. It should be fun, but it could be messy.
Gray Maynard over Clay Guida – Round 2 TKO
These guys might just say fuck it and show up in singlets. They both love love love wrestling and talking about wrestling and trying takedowns and wrestling with shadows and arm wrestling and armrests. All of it. They love it. Guida is the wild one, Maynard is the technical one. It’s a straight up wrestle-fest. Did I mention wrestling? Yes. Now on to the evaluation: With the exception of hair and cardio, Maynard exceeds Guida in every aspect. Gray has better power and more technical punches. When he lands on Clay and Clay shoots to cover up the fact that he’s hurt, Gray is going to switch and end up on top. Guida will struggle from guard because he just likes wrestling you guys, not guard work (WRESTLING WOO!) and Maynard will pile on more damage until he gets a finish.
Gray Maynard over Clay Guida – TKO Rd 1
This aint me hating on Guida as much as it is respecting the fuck outta Gray. He may have the heavyest hands at 155. He’s got a bit of BJ in him. He knows he could GRAPPLEFUCK you, but he’d rather stand and trade with you. Guida will be wirey wild Guida, but he gives bad angles at times and is there to be caught. Gray’s gonna catch him early and sleep him with G & P. 155 is so deep right now, so many top shelf cats.
Yuri Alcantara over Hacran Dias – Round 1 KO
Yuri brings a little glimmer of hope for this card full of randoms. He’s a talented youngster who needs to sharpen up his striking and get his fucking cardio together, but he could really go far. He impressed me with striking accuracy and slick jits in his fight with Omigawa. Dias has a gaudy record with lots of fights but I don’t know about the quality of his opponents. He’s making his debut on the big stage, and Yuri is way beyond a gatekeeper. Dias trains with a great camp in Nova Uniao, but he looks like a work in progress with very rudimentary striking skills. Yuri will show off some kickboxing between stuffing takedown attempts, finish this one late in the first.
Yuri Alcantara over Hacran Dias TKO Rd 1
Lemme get my “ZOMG DAS RACISS” take outta the way now. I’ve watched a lot of TUF Brazil via INTERNETS and Fuel TV, these Brazillian fighters are either Mini-Wandy’s or Mini-Nog’s. No in between. Yuri is more Mini-Nog, but has solid power in the gloves, and will win with G & P after a quick knockdown.
Fabricio Werdum over Mike Russow – Round 3 JD
I was very impressed by Werdum’s performance against Roy Nelson because it was clear that Rafael Cordero has seriously coached up his striking. He’s come a long long way and he looks like mid-level Chute Boxe kickboxer now. Mike Russow will therefore be completely outclassed on his feet. His striking is a disaster and he will probably not get hurt, but after a few minutes of eating punches and leg kicks he’s going to get very desperate for a takedown and Werdum is very dangerous off his back. Instead of gnp, Russow will spend his time on top defending the triangle. The crowd will help persuade the judges to actually score attacking from guard, and combined with the striking Werdum gets the decision.
Fabricio Werdum over Mike Russow – Sub Rd 1
I’m starting to wonder if Werdum is quietly becoming one of the best HW fighters in the world. He’s fought a ton of tough cats the last 2 years (Fedor, Reem, Big Country), and performed well, even in losses. Werdum is going to give Russow fits, force him to try and get this to the mat, and thats where Werdum will catch him. Russow needs to (1) stop being fat if he wants to be considered a legit HW (2) start training with a top team.
Godofredo Pepey Castro vs Rony Jason Bezerra – Round 1 KO
Jason moves likes a polished striker when he’s not engaged, but when he attacks he brings crazy ridiculous flying spinning bullshit and winging punches. Its fucking weird. Against a more conservative counter-fighter this would mean embarrassing KO losses, but Pepey is basically 1D jits so Bezerra can just throw wild shit and we’ll see what happens. I figure he’ll land a knee as Pepey shoots and that will be the end.
Pepey Castro over Jason Bezerra – TKO Rd 1
Pepey could be the new Kos/Dan Hardy. He’s annoying as fuck but tough as nails. I hate going against a Nog Bros. trained cat, and a fellow Jason, but I’m sold on Pepey based on what i’ve seen. He’s got great subs/sub defense, and Im not sure Bezerra will be able to deal with Pepey’s akward shit. I’m guessing Jason gets caught early.
Cezar Mutante Ferreira vs Serginho Moraes – Round 1 TKO
Cezar looks athletic, has KO power, and his aggressive brand of bjj looks effective. Being well-rounded, he could be pretty successful with good game-planning but I think he just goes in there and plans to throw down. Don’t worry about that, though, Serginho is just generally unimpressive. He got dropped several times in a fight he lost, but due to an injury he’s in the finals. This is probably the most fair way to choose a replacement, but it always feels weird to see a guy get killed in ads for a fight…then suddenly he’s in it. K-1 tournaments had this happen way too often, though it also resulted (JAV can I borrow your catchphrase?) in some SAPP TIEM. Oh umm prediction… Ferreira wins because he’s pretty good and Serginho is not. Mutante will drop him in an exchange early, and finish with punches from top-position.
Sergio Moraes over Cezar Ferreira – UD
Both these guys have been knocked out, and theyre both early into their careers, I’m wondering if this is a “first cat to get caught” type situation. I’m doubting it, I’m thinking this stays on the mat, and it’ll be a 3 round scramble. Maraes does enough to steal 2 of the 3 rounds in a sloppy fight.
Rich Franklin over Wanderlei Silva – Round 5 JD
I feel like I have picked both of these fighters wrong for the past two years. Franklin should be able to use distance and footwork to stay relatively safe, but he has shown that he can be pushed back onto the cage, and Wandy would love to close and use knees. It should be noted too that as Wand gets older, he looks more and more like Bub the zombie… but in a scary way not kitchy. Against Cung Le he ate shots and kept moving forward like the Wand of old. I think this re-found toughness will help him survive to lose a decision. Even if he’s winning by the 4th he’ll be totally out of gas and Rich can take over. I like these two old guys and I’ll be on the edge of my seat during close exchanges, until Rich runs away and goes back to out-pointing Wandy.
Rich Franklin over Wanderlei Silva – TKO Rd 2
If I was Wand’s manager, I would of told him to walk away after the Le fight. He was in trouble multiple times in that fight, and stole that fight after Le completly stopped defending his chin. Wandy is a shell of himself, is chinny, gasses, it’s pretty much all goddamn bad. Rich is gonna use his length to keep away from the swarm, and mix straight punches with takedowns that are going to light Wandy up, and lay him down later in the fight.
Enjoy the fights putofaces, and check the podcast as well….