Two weeks ago at Lethal HQ we had a very important decision to make. Searching for Dimebag had depleted our monthly funds, and we had to make a choice between covering some shitty UK event, or the biggest event in the history of the UFC. Clearly you see which way we went. Hopefully Dimebag does’nt go missing again, PI’s and scent catching dogs aint cheap these days, even the Mexican ones.
So we got the HW title up for grabs, a potential great free fight on FOX as well as a potential FOTY with Henderson/Guida, let’s not keep you waiting. I’m ITALICS, Cruelty is not, LET’S GO!!!
Matt Lucas over Aaron Rosa – Round 2 TKO
The most important night since TUF1 Finale and UFC brought out the BIG GUNS. By “GUNS” I mean “dudes who will bash each other until one falls down.” I guess they figured they would give the peasants some blood early. Lucas is making a debut but Rosa looked completely untalented so I pick Lucas by default. It took Beltran 2 Rounds, so maybe Lucas can do it, too.
Matt Lucas over Aaron Rosa – TKO RD 1
Smart curtain jerker. Rosa throws leather and can sprawl and brawl, Lucas is a solid wrestler with some pop in his gloves. Wondering if Rosa can catch Lucas early while he tries to deal with the “1st time jitters” factor. Meh, Rosa doesn’t defend anything well, I’ll take the kid.
Mike Pierce over Paul Bradley – Round 1 Submission RNC
I saw Bradley’s UFC debut live at 133 against Rafael Natal, and I really only remember thinking that Natal was a disappointment. Natal won that fight. Not a flattering story for Paul Bradly, huh? Mike Pierce is a good fighter with solid wrestling and natural boxing. Bradley is an inferior version of this same fighter and I expect him to take while trying to use an awkward guard. He gets desperate trying to get up, and goes into pure wrestling mode… Pierce grabs a choke ftw.
Mike Pierce over Paul Bradley – JD
These two fought before, and according to Pierce Bradley’s hands didn’t impress him and he couldn’t get taken down, so I’m assuming we get the same in this fight? Has Bradley improved since their last fight? Pierce has went on since that fight and racked up wins versus better comp so I’ll take him to win 2 of the 3 rounds.
Cole Escovedo over Bruce Leroy – Round 1 Submission Armbar
I guess if you wear a funny costume on TUF, you get to lose on an undercard or two. Hey, I give the guy props for referencing The Last Dragon because I also love that movie, but Cole Escovedo is a pretty good fighter with good submissions. Bruce Leroy is a n00b on the ground and he’ll get caught.
Cole Escovedo over Bruce Leroy – Sub RD 1
Cole’s trainer txt’d me back 🙂 when I asked him about this fight. Again, take this pick with a few handfuls of favoritism, but I think this is a perfect fight for Cole. Leroy’s sub defense isn’t great and Cole’s BJJ is crazy. Hoping he pulls off a flying triangle or heel hook, he’s looking for that SOTN money. Cole could probably do well if they keep it standing and he DEFENDS HIMSELF, something he didn’t do versus Mizugaki. But I say choke in the 1st.
Mackens Semerzier over Robert Peralta – Round 1 RNC
I lived in Virginia Beach for awhile near Mack’s school, and I feel a vague obligation to pick him. Like we’re peeps. Like we rep the 757. Like that I guess? Meanwhile Peralta is very very raw. He doesn’t have any of the speed that guys should have at Featherweight, so I think Mack is the superior athlete and should be able to dictate where this fight takes place. Mack has solid bjj and he can catch something from top position after he avoids some wild punches.
Robert Peralta over Mackens Semerzier – Sub RD 2
Perelta’s nickname is “Problems”. Holy shit is that badass. Mackens never really impressed me in the WEC and Peralta has some decent wins in the smaller orgs. I’m going anti-jitters here because his nickname is PROBLEMS yo. YOU DON’T WANT NO PROBLEMS OVA HERE!!
Norifumi Yamamoto over Darren Uyenoyama – Round 1 TKO
OK let’s try this again. Kid Yamamoto is looking for his first UFC win after losing to Mighty Mouse Johnson. Mighty Mouse has since beaten some other legit fighters so there’s no shame in that loss, but after every other Japan MMA import failed, it was just annoying that the trend continued. Kid looked slow in that fight, but he’ll be too quick for Darren. Uyenoyama is basically a submission grappler, and Kid will flurry on him. I expect this to be brief and brutal.
Kid Yamamoto over Darren Uyenoyama – TKO RD 1
Dammit this is a trap fight for Yamamoto. Uyenoyama is very well versed and I’m wondering if he could catch Kid in a scramble and find a sub. Leaning Kid for an early KO because he’s got great pop in his gloves.
DaMarques Johnson over Clay Harvison – Round 2 TKO
Looking at Clay Harvison’s recent fight record has shaken me, and I fear that I’ve got it all wrong. I have been working very hard lately to save for plane tickets to visit my family. To buy clothes and a new phone and food and rent. Trading hours of my life for these trifles. But once I have all those things, will I really have what I need? I say no. I say what I NEED is a trip to Duluth Georgia to visit Wild Bill’s Dance Club and Concert Hall, where I can experience Wild Bill’s Fight Night. And maybe strippers on other nights. Well despite having had the amazing privilege of participating in a WBFN, Harvison isn’t much of a fighter. DaMarques is a dick but he’s a better fighter than most TUF guys so he should win this one. I think he’s better in all aspects so I’m randomly choosing a gnp win, thought really it could be anything. But what does that matter to a man like Harvison who has been to the mountain top?
Clay Harvison over DeMarques Johnson – TKO RD 1
Here’s my “The Better Guy Should Of Won But Got All Cray And Got KTFO” pick of the night. Harvison made me a fan of TUF, which may be impossible to do now because I watch the show on mute and FF through 70% of it. DeMarques will get lured into a gun fight, get caught, do the Stanky Leg, and get finished.
Cub Swanson over Ricardo Lamas – Round 3 JD
My dream for this fight is as follows: Ricardo Lamas rides to the cage on a chopper, wearing a no shirt but a leather vest and a kerchief, and everyone knows that it’s a delightful reference television’s Renegade starring Lorenzo Lamas. You see, Lorenzo Lamas would travel around righting wrongs while middle-aged women watched and masturbated. It was a grand time in our nation’s history and it should be celebrated, NEVER FORGET. Cub Swanson would walk to the cage like normal person, and win the fight because he’s better. This should be a rowdy kickboxing match with Swanson piling damage on Lamas over time. The World of Warcraft fans would call this DOTs, and MMA judges will call it a win.
Cub Swanson over Ricardo Lamas – KO RD 1
This reeks of Highlight KO. Lamas doesn’t do well versus guys with heavy hands, guess what Cub’s got? Lamas should start the fight with double flying knees just to fuck with Swanson.
Dustin Poirier over Pablo Garza – Round 1 TKO
Poirier is a pretty dynamic kickboxer, and Garza is a 1d grappler. I’m not sure why this fight floated up this far in the card, but I expect it to be one-sided. Garza is not a good wrestler, and I expect Dustin to bust him up pretty bad before this is stopped.
Dustin Poirier over Pablo Garza – UD
Garza has a decent record and I’m wondering if I’m sleeping on this fight as well. His ground game is crazy and at this weight class you’re gonna see a lot of weird outcomes. I could see Garza catching Poirier in something crazy and us all having a “Uh oh we better watch this dude” moment. Leaning Dustin to keep it standing and win two of the three rounds.
Ben Henderson over Clay Guida – Round 3 JD
There’s going to be so much nasty black curly hair in this fight. Barf. But there’s also gonna be LOTS of takedown attempts, and the kids love takedown attempts. I guess in a way this could show the “new” or “casual” fans that grappling can be fun? I think Ben Henderson is the better wrestler, so I’m giving him the edge. He should spend more time on top, and his gnp is more effective than Guida’s.
Ben Henderson over Clay Guida – Sub RD 3
This would be the PERFECT fight to show new fans of the sport some exciting ground guys doing triple reverses and contorting and all types of ill shit and instead we’re gonna get a shit load of pre-fight crap. Great job FOX. This is the fight where Guida gets exposed as a good but not great fighter, and Henderson gets the legit love he deserves. Henderson is going to work G & P during take downs, catch Guida with shit from weird angles, and get caught in a choke late in the fight. I cant see Guida’s “110% grinding all three rounds” shtick winning him this fight. Ben’s just a better fighter and is going to give Edgar fits in a fight that will make me drop a goddamn load.
Cain Velasquez over Junior dos Santos – Round 3 JD
The UFC heavyweight division has come a long way. The belt they are fighting for was once around Tim Sylvia’s waist. Now we have actual athletes. Interesting and dynamic athletes who are capable of a fight with complexity and nuance. That’s why I’m bringing this awesome analysis: Cain will win because grappling is better than striking. I’m such a fucking MMA genius. Cain can hang for a little while in the stand-up, then he’s going to hit takedowns that are sudden and nearly unstoppable. JdS will get up a few times but his standup advantage won’t be enough to sway the judges. Gnp win for Cain.
Cain Velasquez over Junior dos Santos – TKO RD 2
Cruelty mentioned to me in an e-mail about how crazy it is that we’re getting this fight on free TV, and how far the sport has come. To think 8 or so years ago when we were writing about Pride and UFC and thinking about how awesome this moment would be and now it’s here. I feel like a proud father or some shit.
I’ve sat here for about 2 years saying JdS would be champion one day. And now I’m truly torn on picking against him tonight. I think about Cain’s chin and how shaky it looked versus KONGO! and I’m wondering how it’ll hold up versus a guy that punches just as hard. I could totally see JdS stuffing a takedown and dropping Cain. But I’m going with Cain. He trains with a great camp that has solid HW’s and from what I’ve heard has been grinding the shit out of training partners. I think he does the same with JdS. Takedowns, G & P, cage control, and after a round, possibly two of this JdS will wither, and get finished.
ENJOY THE FIGHTS!!!