Sup folks? Ya boys are back. We’ve got a semi-stacked card tonight, headlined by Lethal Wrestling’s Unofficial Mascot, Nick Diaz! So stop spiking the candy with razor blades, and stop gaying up the forum with drunken “Woulda coulda shoulda’s” and let’s watch some fucking fights! As usual, I’m ITALICS, Cruelty is not, LETS GO!
Dustin Jacoby over Clifford Starks – Round 1 TKO
Don’t expect a montage of highlights from this fight set to classical music. We may have reached the point where expansion has diluted the product. So yeah. Two shitty undefeated guys from small promotions that showed me basically nothing in the fights I could find. Dustin seemed slightly less ugly while ugly brawling during rounds between which ugly girls carried ring cards. I mean fuck, how expensive can attractive ring card girls be?
Dustin Jacoby over Clifford Starks – KO RD 1
You know this fight is fucked when Sherdog doesn’t have EITHER of your pics. That’s a fucking first. We couldn’t get two random former TUF guys? Are these two guys HW’s that will swing for the fences and make people who showed up early feel content? That’s the usual way to start the show. Jacoby has a lot of quick KO’s, so I’ll take him here.
Francis Carmont over Chris Camozzi – Round 1 TKO
These guys are coming off wins over UFC veterans, and Camozzi was on TUF so here I should know them better than I do. What struck me was the notion that muscular black guys from France should all move to America and fuck white girls. Seriously imagine how country club white girls in Connecticut would react to abs and a French accent on a black guy. It’s a good thing they aren’t smart enough to invade or there would be a bizarro race war. Anyway Carmont’s wins are mostly gnp, but he likes to stand and show some traditional muay Thai. Camozzi throws pretty wild so I think he’ll be vulnerable on his feet. I shouldn’t be picking a guy making his debut but hell maybe he’s actually good because Camozzi isn’t. Carmont drops Camozzi with a straight punch, and finishes with a flurry on the ground.
Chris Camozzi over Francis Carmont – Sub RD 2
They should of made this the curtain jerker, everyone knows Camozzi! I want to say something nice about Carmont, but I’ve never seen him fight. He’s got one of those weird records from fighting all over the god damn world. He actually fought in a promotion named “FightForce”. Fucking amazing job with the name there, FightForce guys. Anyway Camozzi finds a choke midway through the fight.
Ramsey Nijem over Daniel Downes – Round 1 Submission (RNC)
Downes has shown a decent sprawl but some vulnerability to submissions. Ramsey is going to look for a takedown and a choke. Downes is an aggressive striker who trains with the Rofousport, and Ramsey recently crumbled under Tony Ferguson’s attack. What I’m saying here is that this fight is intriguing and should come down to execution. I’m giving the edge to Ramsey who should be a better fighter than we saw at his TUF Finals fight.
Ramsey Nijem over Daniel Downes – JD
Can I be honest here? I don’t get what all the hype around Danny Boy Downes is .He’s a solid fighter, and I get that he trains with a top team, (We are officially calling Rofousport a top team now) but is he REALLY that good? I cant remember any of his fights, and I know I’ve seen at least one. I don’t get it. Maybe it’s a McCorkle type deal where the hype of the guy surpasses the shit out of the actual talent of the guy? Anyway, Ramsey is talented, wasn’t mega douchey on TUF, and can actually fight. The Ferguson fight was a mess but I’m chalking that up to nerves/Ferguson punches very hard. Ramsey will be busier, and win two of three rounds.
Brandon Vera over Eliot Marshall – Round 1 KO
Oh snap, I’ve been wondering why Brandon Vera is in the UFC apparel commercials…he still has a contract! He hasn’t looked like much of a fighter in a few years, and I can’t sit here and sell you on his Olympic quality wrestling or Rob Kamen muay Thai. He should be good. He just isn’t. He’s flawed mentally or emotionally, and when he gets in trouble he curls up and dies. Sometimes he just curls up and the ref prematurely stops it before he can finish with the “and dies” portion of his closer. Luckily for him, he’s not fighting a guy who’s going to put him in trouble. Maybe Marshall can be the slumpbust Vera needs to get his groove back? Marshall will try to wrestle with Vera and fail. Vera will counter with knees and win.
Brandon Vera over Eliot Marshall – TKO RD 1
Like most fans, I’m just let down by Vera’s overall career. Maybe I shouldn’t of used McCorkle as the example guy for overhyped now that I think about it. Vera is a lot better at being hella overrated. Maybe if he wasn’t robbed of the Randy Natty fight his career would of went differently? Maybe if he fucked with 205 his entire career shit goes differently? Maybe if he wasn’t a prime example of “LOOKS AMAZING IN THE GYM SO ITS GOTTA TRANSFER TO THE CAGE RIGHT?” shit goes differently? Again, a question I cant answer. And Marshall only has 3 losses? Feels like I’ve seen him KTFO a few times. Maybe he can grapple with Vera and make it an interesting fight? I doubt it. Vera with a highlight reel KO, then ANOTHER “I’M BACK AND BADDER THEN EVER!!” post fight rant with Ariel Helwani.
Tyson Griffin over Bart Palaszewski – Round 3 JD
Bad matchup for Palaszewski who is too willing to give up takedowns because he has good attacks from the guard. Griffin will get on top and land punches. Bart will attack from from the bottom with subs, but Griffin has always been good at scrambling out of danger. Griffin is going to do a bunch of damage to Barts face.
Tyson Griffin over Bart Palaszewski – JD
Holy shit 3 in a row “Potential!/Wasted potential” fighters! 2-3 years ago we all had Tyson pegged as “Future champ” and it just didn’t happen. Another “So what happened?” guy with questions only he could answer. Griffin’s actions at the weigh-in’s yesterday upset the shit outta me. It’s like he didn’t even TRY and make 145. It’s a huge slap in the face to the company and your competition IMO. That said Bart cannot defend take downs versus good wrestlers, and Griffin is great and bigger, so he’s kinda fucked. We cant take one flash KO as a sign that Griffin’s chinny now, and Bart’s best bet is his stand up. I smell a GRAPPLEFUCK!
Donald Cerrone over Denis Siver – Round 3 JD
This is going to be a great fight: Karate-based kickboxing vs muay Thai should equal a crowd-pleaser. Cerrone would have a huge advantage on the ground but I can’t see him trying or getting a takedown. Siver is generally the shorter fighter, but this height/reach advantage will be pronounced and it will cost him the fight. Cerrone will use his length to score from outside, and the thai clinch to score when Siver comes in.
Donald Cerrone over Dennis Siver – TKO RD 3
This fight reeks of all types of awesome and I fear I will be in a car when it happens and I’m going to fucking miss it. Two awesome kickboxers who both have the “I’m too fucking tough to go to the ground despite the fact that you’re beating the crap out of me” machismo thing going on makes for a fun fight. Siver may be the harder striker but he tends to throw very limited combos, while Cerrone throws 3’s and 4’s with some bad fucking intent. Mix in his bony ass knees and elbows, and he busts you the fuck up. Cerrone edges Siver in the FOTN.
Scott Jorgensen over Jeff Curran – Round 3 JD
Curran is a great bjj player, and sadly he hit his prime before American MMA had a weight class for him. Jorgensen is much quicker and his wrestling will give him the ability to take this fight wherever he wants. Within the confines of the cage, that is. The cage is locked so if you were imagining Jorgensen taking the fight to some Dr Mindbender style laboratory where the evil skeksis with the monocle sucks Curran’s essence and converts it into skin pigment for Jorgensen… if you were imagining all that you’re fucking weird and mistaken on how easy it is for 135 pound dudes to escape cages. Maybe you’re retarded because you got a bad HPV vaccine like Michele Bachmann’s friend. If Scott is losing the standup he’ll get a takedown and score from the top.
Scott Jorgensen over Jeff Curran – TKO RD 2
Poor Jeff Curran. FINALLY breaks back into the UFC after YEARS, probably close to 10, of fighting guys at 155 when he should have been fighting at 135 or 145. Thankfully for us and him people started giving a shit about smaller guys. Can we do another TUF comebacks show with guys that were fighting at 155 forever and now wanna drop to 135 or 145? And Curran gets matched up with Jorgensen, who is a A-/B+ dude who’ younger, faster, and stronger at Curran in just about everything. THESE. ARE. THE BREAKS! BREAK IT UP BREAK IT UP BREAK IT UPPPP! This doesn’t end well for Curran.
Roy Nelson over Mirko Cro-Cop – Round 1 Submission (Arm Triangle)
Roy will take Cro-Cop down and tap him. Right? Roy may be too fat or have bad cardio or bad hair, but this aged version of CC will lose to good grapplers, and Roy is a good grappler. Roy’s takedowns looked sad in his last fight but I think he’ll get the job done.
Roy Nelson over Mirko Cro Cop – Sub RD 2
I fucking hate seeing Pride/K1 legends thrown to the wolves. I really do. Roy wore a fat suit on the scale yesterday and still weighed in slim for Roy, so I’m wondering if he’s gonna have a “Lookit me I’m only half a belly tonight” thing going on. When he came out in the fat suit and beard and hat he looked like Phil Margera, which made me laugh. If he keeps the fat suit he’s got a Halloween costume right there. After the last CC fight being so ugly and ending so badly I’m blown away with CC even considering fighting. He doesn’t need the money, and admits it’s not fun to train anymore. What the fuck is the motivation then? Roy will stand for a round to make it interesting, then eventually take it to the mat and choke Mirko out. Mirko will lay there lifeless, and Croatia will hate us even more.
Hatsu Hioki over George Roop – Round 3 JD
With the Japanese MMA scene on life support, Hioki might be the last great Japanese fighter to make his way to America where Pride fans will predict a killing spree, and UFC fans will remember all the shitty performances they’ve seen after listening to their friends blab about how awesome this guy was in Shooto. If Hioki wants to finish that tradition off (I’ll break out my Tower 200 and do a 21 Demon salute) he is certainly dumb enough to do it. He’s the more talented fighter, and he should get a relatively easy gnp decision. Or he will choose to stand with Roop for know reason and get got. How can I know if he’ll fight smart or has some other crazy idea. If it was possible to know what is in their weird little minds, Pearl Harbor wouldn’t have gone down like that.
George Roop over Hatsu Hioki – TKO RD 1
This is how much faith I have in JMMA today. I feel I should end this paragraph after this sentence for comical reasons. But seriously, after what’s happened to Jorge Santiago the last year I have ZERO confidence in what’s going on over there. He’s the PERFECT example of what happens to guys that have built a career out there. All the top fighters have aged, moved over to the UFC, or moved on to pro wrestling or some other shit. Hioki’s biggest win is over Sandro and Sandro got flat out KTFO by Pat ‘Not Jeff’ Curran. It’s beyond apparent to me that if you’re not training in Canada, America, or Brazil, you aren’t training with the best. Sorry UK, Asia, Russia, and Mexico. Hioki will get caught early by Roop throwing looping shit, get dropped, and get one of those “WTF DANA WAS BEHIND THAT EARLY STOPPAGE TRYING TO KILL JMMA!!11” threads at Sherdog I spend Sunday night laughing at while high as hell.
Cheick Kongo over Matt Mitrione – Round 3 JD
Matt Mitrione has some fun standup, but his footwork and takedown defense are still a work in progress. Mitrione likes to parry punches but I worry about that plan with Kongo throwing serious heat, but really I think this fight will take place on the ground because Kongo has shown that he’s willing to throw some low-level wrestling at a guy when he’s not expecting it. This is a big step up in competition for Mitrione and I don’t think he’s quite there yet.
Cheick KONGO over Matt Mitrione – TKO RD 2
I know Mitrione is good, and I know he’s going to be great in the future, but there’s no way I’m buying a guy with limited fighting experience taking out a guy with an insane kickboxing pedigree. Nope. And AWC and I only waited 5 years, but KONGO! IS BACK! If he KO’s Meathead how do you not throw him in the “Outer crust guys that could possibly fight for a title if the right amount of guys get hurt” category? He replaces Carwin, who’s going to be on the shelf for a while anyway. Meathead isn’t taking this fight to the mat, he’s going to trade with Kongo, and he’s going to get worn out and finished later in the fight.
Nick Diaz over BJ Penn – Round 3 JD
I debated this pick all week in my head. Diaz is on one hell of a tear, but Penn represents a uniquely diverse threat. If this is to be a boxing match, I think Penn is the better power puncher. If this is a grappling match, Penn’s bjj gives him an edge. But can Diaz just stand there and jab? He’s much longer, and he’s faced better wrestlers than Penn and disrespected their shots. I hate to pick against BJ because he has more ways to win, but it seems most likely that Diaz wears BJ down by forcing him to shoot under punches for 10 minutes, and wins a 29-28 fight by outworking Penn in the 3rd.
BJ Penn over Nick Diaz – TKO RD 1
Yep. Going there. I know I drunkenly slurred out my thoughts on the last Lethal Radio, but let me bring them back around. These are two of my favorite fighters EVER. Seeing them go at it almost doesn’t seem right. All I know is when I picture it/break it down in my head, I don’t see this fight hitting the mat at all, I see Diaz trading with Penn because that’s what he does with EVERYONE, and Penn landing a fucking BOMB in the pocket, because that’s what he does when guys are dumb enough to trade with his ass. Will that bomb be enough to finish a big ass 170er is the question?
I know Diaz has been trading heavy leather with some brutal strikers recently, but Penn is another level from ALL those guys, let’s not get it twisted. This is the ONE bad fight for Diaz IMO. I think he would have beaten GSP or Condit, but Penn is the one guy stylistically that’s just a terrible match up for him. Plus he was showing a SHIT TON of respect to Penn leading into this fight, almost TOO much. Of course most of that was thrown away at the weigh in yesterday when Diaz went Diaz, so maybe I miscalculated? We’ll see. I got Penn landing a huge 2-piece in the pocket that drops Diaz something fierce, Penn swarming on Diaz with punches, and a stoppage that makes hardcore Diaz fans say “But he wasn’t out! Look he’s standing and arguing with the ref and starting a massive riot! He’s fine! BULLSHIT STOPPAGE!” in a memorable fireworks fight.
Enjoy the fights!