Sup folks? If you are reading this you have clearly survived whatever bullshit hurricane issues that are going on. I dunno we dont deal with that shit in Cali. Way too focused on our potent pot to worry about that type of shit. Anyways you guys ready for some fights tonight? I’m sure you could drag a TV/laptop to whatever basement or bomb shelter you’ve trapped yourself inside. Solid card, first time in Brazil in forever, I’m ITALICs, Cruelty is not, LETS GO!!
Ian Loveland over Yves Jabouin – Round 3 JD
Two skinny strikers take a break from fighting cubic wrestlers to bang it out. Sounds like fun, right? Loveland is the better fighter here but he’s so supremely confident it has me worried. He stands up straight, he’ll hold his hands low, he does all this cocky shit and he’s not really a big deal yet. Weird. Jabouin might land something big and crazy but I think Loveland will play with fire and use grappling occasionally to keep from getting burned. Burned used to mean gonorrhea. Does it still mean that? There’s some antibiotic resistant strain out there now, but I continue to believe I am protected by the combo of condoms and my middle-class whiteness.
Yves Jabouin over Ian Loveland – JD
I dig me some Yves. I know he’s had ISSOOZ with top comp, lucky for him he isn’t seeing any tonight. Loveland has a solid record, and on paper this looks like the curtain jerker Zuffa would want, two smaller guys throwing heat. Both guys are pretty well rounded here, but I’ll take Yves to be the better man tonight and grab 2 of the 3 rounds needed.
Erick Silva over Luis Ramos – Round 1 KO
Ooooh I get it. This is like when the UFC goes to the UK and we get pale 1-D boxers. Local talent in Brazil consists of randoms from big camps who haven’t been impressive enough to make it onto US cards. This looks to be a bit of striker-grappler despite their records. Erick Silva has that muay Thai that looks polished when he’s hitting mits and a bit wild when he’s in the ring/cage, but whatever that works for a lot of guys. This Silva was supposed to be fighting Swick, but they give him Ramos. Ramos sorta likes to stand too so maybe this fight happens like UFC wanted? Ramos stands up straight and slides around without moving his head, so I think he gets blasted.
Erick Silva over Luis Ramos – Sub RD 1
I see Silva is being put over as a striker by some “experts” but he really is known for his solid sub game. Can Ramos defend the TD or a flying sub attempt? Being in Brazil, you know some of these younger kids are gonna try crazy shit tonight. I think Silva gets this to the mat quickly and finds a way to Ramos’ neck.
Yuri Alcantara over Felipe Arantes – Round 3 JD
Fuck I’ve probably seen Alcantara fight on some random WEC undercard but I have no recollection. I’ll pick him based on his experience on the big stage. I can’t be bothered to worry about these nobodies because there’s a hurricane coming and I predict society will unravel here in a city that is already pretty uncivilized. Lord of the Flies set in Philly seems like a fun premise until some asshole in a Phillies loincloth is menacing you with a spear he bought in south philly. It would be like this “Oh shit you have a spear… why do you have a spear??” and he’d be like “My cousin went to school with a guy and he introduced me to his spear guy. So I gotta guy.” Allowing people to brag about having connections guys who sell random items or perform random services is a good conflict resolution strategy here. The more you KNOW
Yuri Alcantara over Felipe Arantes – JD
Honestly this is a pretty solid fight between two young up and coming cats that’s a bit of a pick ‘em. These guys have made a solid name for themselves fighting in Jungle Fight and the smaller leagues in Brazil where people are still soccer stomping cats. And Felipe is wearing a cowboy hat in his Sherdog Fight Finder profile pic, making it nearly IMPOSSIBLE for me to pick against him. But I think Yuri could make some waves along with the rest of these newer 55’ers coming into the mix as of late. Another tough fight that will be worth watching on the prelims, Yuri snakes two of the three rounds for the W.
Paulo Thiago over David Mitchell – Round 1 TKO
Mitchell has wins of War Machine AND Poppies Martinez?!?! Paulo Thiago was supposed to be a killer and he got exposed by good wrestlers. But he’s a cop so that’s cool to people, like he’s a GI Joe or something. Fuck that terrible movie completely killed that brand. It had a Wayans. Seriously? Anyway, David Mitchell is not a special wrestle, so Thiago is going to have a chance to show-off his striking again.
Paulo Thiago over David Mitchell – RD 1 TKO
Realizing I’m starting to mirror-image Cruelty’s picks. Dammit. Being on the same page with him sometimes makes us both look like dumbasses instead of just one of us. Oh well. This fight is made for Thiago to look awesome, and get over as well. Mitchell will be completely out of his element and get steamrolled. Maybe post-fight Thiago could yell “GET TO DA CHOPPAH” and run out of the cage into a waiting helicopter? It’s Rio let’s go all the fuck in folks. At least grab a gun and work security?
Johnny Eduardo over Raphael Assuncao – Round 3 JD
Eduardo has some vaguely interesting wins in Shooto, Bellator, and other small promotions. Assuncao has the big-show experience but he’s also looked like ass lately. I’m looking to pick the longer leaner fighter in Eduardo because I think he can stay away from Assuncao’s clumsy takedowns and stumpy arms. Lowkicks and counter-left hooks will outscore the occasional takedown Assuncao does manage.
Raphael Assuncao over Johnny Eduardo – JD
Damn Eduardo’s been KILLING it in the smaller org’s. Dude hasn’t lost in 3 years! He’s like 10-0. Big difference here is the opponents Raphael has been facing. Top comp. All these younger Brazilian fighters really will reap the benefit of fighting at home, as opposed to the bigger guys on the card who haven’t fought in Brazil in years, or ever in Nog’s case. Anyway Raphael will find ways to steal rounds, either with cage control and take downs.
Rousimar Palhares vs. Dan Miller – Round 2 Submission (Heelhook)
Ok now I’m switching sides of the stumpy aisle and backing the stumpy guy who’s name actually means Stump. Dan Miller has risen to the level where he’s going to alternate wins and losses until people declare him a gatekeeper. Miller isn’t a good enough striker to win the fight on his feet. Palhares throws big wild punches that beg for stupid tree analogies to match his nickname, but I’m too good for that. Someone will get a takedown, and Palhares will catch a leg.
Dan Miller over Toquino Palhares – JD
Blown away by everyone counting Miller out. Dude has only lost to really good guys, and has never been submitted. Maia, Horwich, and Doerksen couldn’t submit him, and I’m supposed to believe Palhares can? Nah I’m good. Miller wins the stand up as well as the scrambles, and will be “sweaty” enough to avoid the ANKIEL LOECK.
Thiago Tavares over Spencer Fisher – Round 3 JD
Fisher is a solid striker and Tavares is willing to stand and bang, sometimes. That said, Tavares has lately been smart enough to try his top-position game. His jiu-jitsu is good but his wrestling isn’t great. There’s been a lot of that on this card, huh? Fisher has shit takedown defense so I’m giving Tavares the edge.
Thiago Tavares over Spencer Fisher – JD
I fucking LOVE Tavares. I can’t believe he’s been fighting with the UFC for 4 years now. I’ve been waiting for this kid to break through to that top tier and he just can’t do it. Fisher is game as hell but a bit old skool and could possibly get steamrolled? My biggest fear is Tavares gets into a slugfest and gets caught by Fisher, who’s a decent counter-striker. I’ll go with Tavares to in a shutout.
Luiz Cane over Stanislav Nedkov – Round 3 JD
In a card full of Brazilians, there isn’t much sexy jits. Oh well. Cane is a killer striker and Nedkov is going to be ring rusty. Cane should put volume on the Bulgarian including some sick legkicks.
Luiz Cane over Stanislav Nedkov – TKO RD 1
I WANNA say steamroll fight. But Nedkov has some KO power and is stalky as fuck. Maybe he gets inside Cane’s reach and KO’s Cane? This may be a “First guy to land” type fight, and I’ll take Cane using his reach to catch Nedkov.
Ross Pearson over Edson Barboza Jr. – Round 3 JD
This is a well-made fight. I see a bright future for both of these fighters, who generally win by having better superior kickboxing technique. Barboza has scary legkicks, and Pearson has good all-around kickboxing and movement. This should be a crowd-pleaser for the first two rounds, as both guys exchange. Against Spencer Fisher, Pearson iced the fight with a sloppy takedown and top-position in the third. Junior’s takedown defense is better than Spencer’s, but Pearson wil catch him thinking about striking.
Edson Barboza Jr. over Ross Pearson – TKO RD 2
I can’t stop thinking about the way Cole Miller picked Pearson apart and not think Barboza will do the same. Pearson took a lot of damage to the body that fight, and if he isn’t checking leg kicks it’ll end in a round. Can Pearson get a takedown? I’m not sure, but that may be the most interesting question of this fight. I don’t think he does, and using that “Holyfield” type boxing isn’t going to work when Barboza is letting those kicks go. Add Barboza to my “List of guys we need to start really paying attention to” after this fight.
Brendan Schaub over Minotauro Nogueira – Round 1 KO
He just beat Cro-Cop and now Schaub is fighting Nog? It doesn’t seem fair that he gets to catch these guys on the way down, and I hope 2004 finds a way to punish him for tainting it’s memory. I nominate Lil Jon to lead this attack from the past. So yeah… Nog is old and slow now. It makes me sad. Schaub is young and getting better every fight. He’s a much better athlete than probably Nog ever was, and grappling technique won’t be and issue. Schaub lands bombs, and Rogan talks Minotauro retirement.
Brendan Schaub over Minotauro Nogueira – TKO RD 1
Let the record reflect that I havent picked against Nog in the 17 fights i’ve written about him. Majority of you know my undying love for Nog. He’s my Ali, my Tyson, MY DUDE. He’s the guy that made me give a shit about MMA again 10 years ago, and it breaks my heart to see him looking 103 years old walking out to the ring AGAIN, with the possibility of him getting his head caved in again. Ready for my C-O-N-SPIRACY? I truly believe Dana wants all these Pride guys done. Every last one of them. Fedor, Nog, Shogun, Gomi, Wand, Barnett, he wants them all to just go away already. And the best way to do that is put them in match ups where his younger guy reaps the benefits of having that guys name under his win column. In 5 years people will truly believe that Pride FC was just a bunch of no talent having fighters that all got destroyed by the better UFC guys, and that is all wrong. And I don’t count certain guys (Rampage, Anderson) because Dana thinks HE made those guys, not Pride.
Could Nog win? I guess, he could pull a sub out of his ass, or take a beating for a round or two, then get top position and choke Schaub out? It’s not like Schaub looked like a world beater up until he landed that punch on Mirko. If this happens, ya boy will openly cry tears of joy. It will be my Ali-Foreman moment, I know it’s not on that scale by any means but it’s the only thing I can compare it to. But it’s a young man’s sport, and it’s out with the old, in with the new. Assuming Nog will lose, get cut, and go back to Japan to finish out his career.
Mauricio Rua over Forrest Griffin – Round 2 KO
A lot has happened to both of these fighters since they last faced eachother. Ups and downs, and two young guys grew up. I love this fight, because I don’t know where they are now. Forrest could fight a smart fight, and win with a little kickboxing and a few takedowns. He shouldn’t make this a war, because I believe years of being in wars have taken a toll on Griffin’s cranium. After a couple KO’s, guys are easier to KO. We’re just machines of meat, after all, and machines wear down when they’re abused. (See for example, Minotauro’s potato-like face) Griffin still thinks he can hang in exchanges like the old days, but this time Rua touches his chin and starches him.
Forrest Griffin over Shogun Rua – TKO RD 3
Another example of my last rant. I just can’t see Shogun pulling another one out of his ass. I think the Bones beat down was more about Shogun not being the Shogun from 6 years ago, and Bones may of beat the spirit out of him. When you get beat up that badly, sometimes it takes more then a few months to recover. And one of the MMA Live guys had a very good point, if Shogun were a NFL or NBA player we would be making a lot bigger deal out of his knee issues. I think this fight is set up to get Forrest back in the mix and push Shogun out of that middle-tier title contender’s slot.
But what Forrest shows up may also be a huge factor in this? He reportedly had HUGE issues with the weight cut and has also had some up and down fights recently when he has fought. Can Shogun find Griffin’s chin? Will Griffin attack Shogun’s body the same way Bones did, eventually breaking down the former champ? ARE WE TRULY MACHINES MADE OF MEAT? I’m high as fuck and that’s fucking with me now, thanks Cruelty. I say Forrest wears Shogun down with kicks, stays away from the CHUTE BOXE/KINGS MMA FLURRY, and finishes him with strikes late in the fight.
Anderson Silva over Yushin Okami – Round 3 KO
Okami is a very good fighter, and he fought well against Silva back before Silva found his power at 185 and Okami also grew out of that scary weight class. He has developed his striking game, and relies on his jab to frustrate strikers until he can clinch. There’s also this: Okami is a good wrestler, and until Anderson can go back to college and win a NCAA title, people will wonder if he can beat a wrestler. Btw, do you prefer the Rodney Dangerfield movie about old guys going back to college, or the Tom Hanks movie? Anyway, Okami is not a wrestler of Chael Sonnen’s caliber, so I’m not willing to believe that he gets on top for 3 rounds and doesn’t get murdered on the feet before it’s over. Why did I bother writing all of that? Anderson is a killer, and it’s stupid to pick against him.
Anderson Silva over Yushin Okami – KO RD 1
Okami is a very good grappler who’s not on Chael’s level, and although the blueprint to beat Anderson is out there, it still needs to be executed by the right person, and Okami isn’t the guy. Lump in Anderson being bothered by all the “Last time he lost” stuff, and he’s going to kill Okami. I know this fight has to happen, and I know the “Yeah but…” argument can be made, but this is Anderson, and he’s really good at kicking people in the head. Okami doesn’t stand a chance standing.