Sup folks. The fellas have taken time away from slangin’ and bangin’ to bring you the goods. We got a solid card, with everybody’s favorite black man not named Denard Robinson. We also got BJ-Hughes III, which was a lot more fun when they hated eachother. But who cares! It’s guys punching eachother in the face for money! And as always, we got some opinions on them, mine are in ITALICS, Cruelty’s are not, LETS GO!!
Paul Kelly over TJ O’Brien – Round 2 TKO
TJ O’Brien is a late replacement for Gabe Rudiger who was also a late replacement I think? Obrien got killed in his TUF tryout in 10 seconds, so we didn’t get to see him get pounded while trying to work his guard game. We get to see it LIVE on Saturday, instead.
Paul Kelly over TJ O’Brien – JD
Kelly is a bit more than your typical Brit slugger. He’s got a decent ground game. Fight Finder is acting gay so I cant get a read on what O’Brien has been doing lately. I’ll take Kelly using his hands to grab a JD.
Karo Parisyan over Dennis Hallman – Round 3 JD
Hallman’s name will be forever tied to Matt Hughes, and here he is on a card with the guy who’s bad choke defense put him on the map. Parisyan tends to find a way to get on top. He’s famous for his judo throws but he really only hits them against garbage fighters, and Hallman is good enough to sandbag. Karo will get a takedown on sheer determination, and he’ll win the first two rounds with takedowns and sloppy gnp. He tends to gas in the 3rd but so does Hallman, so that will be an ugly round of clinching and the occasional windmill punch from Karo.
Karo Parysian over Dennis Hallman – JD
I’m surprised this fight is so low on the card. Anyone with a little MMA knowledge is going to know at least one of these two cats. Hallman has already been put into my “Any weight plus 50 fights” league, so you gotta respect him game. Karo is going to use hooks standing and try Judo throws, and I think he’s a lot better on the mat than Hallman. He’ll smother him for 2 rounds and get into a sloppy slugfest late to try and win the crowd back.
Junior Barboza over Mike Lullo – Round 1 KO
I want to pick Lullo because he’s a Chicago boy like myself, but I’m completely unimpressed by what I’ve seen from this guy. He’s a vaguely effective top-position grappler, and Barboza is a buzzsaw. Lullo will eat some low-kicks until he catches one, but Barboza will scramble away and put punches on Lullo. The kickspeed is pretty sick. I don’t think he’s refined enough for UFC stardom, but Junior will put on some good fights as he matures.
Junior Barboza over Mike Lullo – JD
I’m going with the guy with a bunch of KO’s in the first round in Brazil.
Phil Davis over Tim Boetsch – Round 3 TKO
Boetch is a big strong wrassler who generally wins with big clubbing punches and his wrassling. Phil Davis is much too fast to get clubbed, and a WAY better wrestler. I’ve become a Phil Davis fan and I think this is another step on his way to the top. I will be curious to see how Davis’ striking is coming along, but this fight will end on the ground with Davis on top. Get used to that sight because he’s gonna terrorize LHW. I know he was a little lackluster in his last outing, but I believe the was more due to his opponent working to survive instead of working to win. Phil Davis is awesome. And black. Like kalamata olives. I fucking love those things on a nice salad, or mixed in hummus. They’re delicious like this Phil Davis victory.
Phil Davis over Tim Boetch – TKO Rd 3
Shit Mr. Wonderful is on the card! Everyone talks so much about Bones Jones but this is a really dangerous kid who’s about to break the fuck out. Boetch will always be awesome because of that one fight where he dumped that kid on his head street style then knocked him the fuck out. HOWEVA, he’s pretty much a 1-D guy, and Davis is going to G & P him out late in the fight.
Nik Lentz over Tyson Griffin – Round 3 JD
This is a tough one because Lentz has had some real success lately in holding guys down and getting terribly boring decisions. Griffin is a good wrestler, but he’s more of a scrambler and I could see him getting smothered. I’m gonna make the upset pick here and pick Griffin to lose a frustrating fight that’s a snoozefest for the fans.
Tyson Griffin over Nik Lentz – JD
Shit I really want to pick THE CARNIE but Tyson is desperate for a win here. He’s going to let his stubby arms fly early and smother Lentz when they get close, either on the mat or against the cage for 3 rounds. I feel bad for Griffin because he was one of the top guys at 155 a few years ago, but with him getting KTFO by Gomi and the merger you gotta wonder if he could be another dude on the chopping block.
Matt Brown over Brian Foster – Round 2 Submission (Kimura)
Matt Brown has done a good job of rounding out his game. He still hasn’t mass-produced “Down with the Brown” t-shirts, but nobody’s perfect. For example: Jessica Alba can’t read, Tom Brady watches kiddie porn, and earlier today I totally tore open a bag of shredded cheese instead of tearing along the perforated edge so I could use the ziplock strip to reclose it. To err is human, I guess. Brian Foster has faced tough fighters in his UFC stint, and looked decent. He plans to wear a “Put it in the Brown” shirt which doesn’t make too much sense as anything but a sex joke, but that’s cool. This fight should be a war, because both guys go for the kill. Foster takes lots of chances, and my gut is telling me that Brown catches him during a scramble.
Matt Brown over Brian Foster – TKO Rd 1
Love me some Matt Brown. Just a tough dude. His ground game has improved since TUF but he can still be controlled on the mat by top wrestlers. Foster is going to want to trade, and that’s not going to end well for him.
Aaron Simpson over Mark Munoz – Round 3 JD
Mark Munoz has fucking terrible striking. He’s had a little success standing recently, so people say he’s learning, but it’s still fucking UGLY. Simpson has some good power, and his ugly striking is slightly less ugly. This is gonna be one of those wrestler vs wrestler kickboxing matches with some stalemate clinches mixed in to give people time signal the Hooters girl to bring another Bud Light pitcher. Simpson will land a little bit more to edge the decision.
Mark Munoz over Aaron Simpson – TKO Rd 3
Wrestler vs. wrestler equals awkward stand up fight. Simpson gassed hard versus Leben, and I assume he will do the same with Munoz, who has ugly stand up but power in his hands. He reminds me of Mahh Hammah, a great wrestler still figuring out how to strike. Getting beat up by Anderson and Lyoto in the gym helps.
Joe Lauzon over George Sotiropouos – Round 3 JD
This is a great fight between two young guys who are really on a roll. Both are submission fighters first, and I expect the grappling to be very exciting. Lauzon was ferocious in his dismantling of Gabe Ruediger and I expect him to push the pace, and win on the scorecards due to aggression. In terms of pure action, this could be fight of the night.
Joe Lauzon over George Sotiropoulos – JD
When I first heard about this fight I seriously jumped on twitter and started texting my boys on some “HOLY FUCKING SHIT” shit. Love this fight. These guys are on the cusp of being amazing, and you gotta give Dana props for booking this one. Both guys are amazing on the mat, so I think they will cancel each other out there. It will come down to who can get busier standing, and I take Lauzon here. He has crazy confidence in his long reach and throws crazy elbows and kicks. I think he does just enough to win a close JD.
Gerald Harris over Maiquel Falcao – Round 1 KO
Harris has been quietly piling up wins in the Middleweight division, which is definitely the UFC’s weakest now that the HW division doesn’t suck. Falcao has been killing randoms in small shows in the old skool Chute Boxe style: wildly throwing hands. His opponents were various sizes… is this his first fight in the UFC and his first fight at Middleweight? That doesn’t seem like a great plan. I believe that Harris is the more technical striker, and a better wrestler. Harris gets on top and finishes early.
Gerald Harris over Maiquel Jose Falcao Goncalves – TKO Rd 2
Gerald Harris is a awesome wrestler who’s striking has improved a ton. I just noticed there are a lot of black guys fighting tonight. Goncalves has 4 names, which makes me think of FOUR LOKO. Our very own Forum favorite Dimebag recently talked about drinking these. My initial thoughts were “WHY THE FUCK IS DIMEBAG DRINKING THIS SHIT?” First off, no grown man has business drinking that shit unless they are going to a club. Or like 17, and that means you are not a grown ass man. Second, Dime’s out of shape heart attack man looking ass has no business drinking CANS of something with all that fucking caffeine in it. I’m so concerned, I brought this up to Judge Gonz via text, but then we laughed about it and made fun of him. Fucking Four Loko. Anyway Harris wins via G & P.
BJ Penn over Matt Hughes – Round 3 TKO
When this fight was announced, I was a little annoyed that BJ was wasting his time. Matt Hughes is not a relevant fighter at this point in his career. After watching the countdown show I’ve changed my mind. This fight is relevant to how these two fighters are remembered, and both guys seem to know it. Two guys who, at times, could give a fuck about MMA because they’d rather play outdoors, are fired up for this bout. Hughes has improved his stand-up a bit, but Penn has been facing speedy LW and Hughes is gonna look like he’s punching underwater compared to guys like Edgar and Florian. BJ has his cardio right, he’s the better grappler, and he has more power punching. Hughes will not have 5 rounds to wear BJ down, and BJ will be the better fighter over 3 rounds. Hughes will struggle for takedowns and eat punches while he tries. It’ll go to the ground eventually, and BJ will look to sweep. Hughes will stand-up to avoid the danger, and he’ll go back to eating punches. Just a hunch, but I think BJ will drop Hughes late and finish with a flurry and some bloodlicking.
Matt Hughes over BJ Penn – JD
Two things come to mind here. One is this is the first time I’ve ever picked BJ to lose back to back fights. Two being I remember writing about the first fight with Cruelty and we both thought BJ would win easily. I was so confident in that pick, this one not so much. I wonder if it’s because I’m a old skool BJ mark. I’ve been saying it all year, in MMA you get old overnight. BJ didn’t just lose last fight, he looked old. Hughes on the other hand looks like his career has resurrected. He blew my mind with his crushing of both Renzo and Almeida. If you think about it if ANYONE could have a Randy Natty type comeback later in their career, it would be Hughes. I think Hughes gives up the first round looking for the shoot, gets his take down in the second and just out grinds and wears down Penn the last two rounds. Penn also is coming in a bit heavy for this fight, which also makes me lean Hughes way. Honestly I question why BJ fights anymore, as well as his motivation.
Lyoto Machida over Quinton “Rampage” Jackson – Round 3 JD
People say that Shogun layed out a blueprint for Lyoto’s opponents, but I wonder if anyone in Rampage’s camp is smart enough to see that. He really does train with a bunch of yesmen and losers. Wow. Meanwhile, Lyoto went back to the ancient temple or whatever, and he’ll come out with a little better lowkick defense. Rampage is not all that interested in MMA these days, and Lyoto is a guy with a very strange style that requires you to train a particular way. I think Rampage plans to just go out there and do whatever, and Lyoto is going to take him apart scientifically: Ancient abacus and natural remedies type science from the Brazilian orient.
Lyoto Machida over Rampage Jackson – JD
Again, this is the first time I’ve ever picked against Rampage in back to back fights. And again, I question Rampage’s motivation to fight. Is it because of money, or just to get these fights over with and get out of his contract? He didn’t get a tune up fight that’s for sure. On the Countdown he looked unmotivated to me training with an unknown camp that doesn’t really know him. Machida is still great, and simply made a mistake thinking he could trade with Shogun. Nobody can. He recognizes that Rampage will not take him down, and he’s going to pepper ‘Page with punches and leg and body kicks. Page will come forward throwing hooks, and Machida will do his bull/matador thing and avoid that big hook Rampage loops, and counter with straight punches that will bust Rampage up. This will go down for three rounds, Machida will win and we’ll all start talking about him getting a title shot again. Post fight Rampage will drink 20 FOUR LOKOS and abort more babies with his big ass truck.
There you have it, be on the lookout for UFC 124 picks, and MAYBE even Year End awards, if you ask nicely.